Ukraine: Tough Road Ahead for Kyiv in 2025
Human Rights First has been documenting human rights issues in Ukraine since Russia’s 2014 invasion. Since the full-scale invasion of February 2022 I’ve made 17 research visits to the country, focusing on the work of Human Rights Defenders at the eastern front. I spent much of December 2024 in the city of Kharkiv, and here is an update on prospects for 2025.
How’s the war going for Ukraine?
Not so well. In late 2022, its military managed to take back much of the territory Russian forces occupied in February of that year, but since May 2024 Russia has again made steady, creeping progress along the vast eastern front. In November 2024 Russian forces took more Ukrainian territory than in any month since September 2022.
Washington has lifted some restrictions on how the weapons it has supplied Ukraine can be used, and international arms supplies continue, albeit at a lower rate than Kyiv wants. But Ukraine is facing a desperate challenge in recruiting soldiers. A new conscription drive which started in April 2024 lowering the draft age from 27 to 25 hasn’t generated enough men. The authorities are now recruiting from prisons and taking Human Rights Defenders for their lifesaving work evacuating civilians from the front line and putting them into the army. The situation is dire, with many men in hiding to avoid being put into the military, although pressure from the Biden White House that Ukraine lowers the draft age to 18 is so far being resisted.
But Isn’t Russia Sustaining High Levels of Casualties?
Indeed it is, but it appears willing to sustain them. Hard numbers on those killed and wounded on either side are hard to establish, though some investigative journalists have done some fine work on estimating figures. No doubt Moscow’s troop losses along the entire front are immense, with the British Ministry of Defence estimating that in May 2024 Russia was sustaining 1200 casualties a day. But the huge losses don’t appear to stopping Russia’s gradual drive westwards. Despite sanctions the Russian economy is now booming with the Russian public seemingly in solid support of the war.
What About Russia’s Defeat in Syria?
Russia’s humiliation in Syria has boosted morale in Ukraine, reminding it and the world that Russia’s military isn’t invincible. Some Ukrainians are claiming partial credit for the defeat too, suggesting that Russia’s military efforts in Ukraine stretched its resources in Syria. Others were also encouraged that even the most brutal autocratic regimes can be overthrown, offering some hope that Putin might one day be brought down by internal forces.
What Difference Will President Trump Make?
This is the question I’m most often asked in Ukraine, and there’s no obvious answer. Republicans have a conflicted, contradictory record on Ukraine. Trump has offered inconsistent promises, and since winning the election has said “We’re trying to get the war stopped … It’s a tough one.”
Last week reports suggested his administration would continue with military aid to Kyiv, though on what terms and scale isn’t clear. Trump’s team is also reportedly already in discussions with Ukrainian officials and Biden advisors about how to help end the war.
No draft plan has yet been presented to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, although last week Zelenskyy’s chief of staff, Andriy Yermak, held talks with Keith Kellogg, Trump’s pick for U.S. envoy to Ukraine, and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance.
What About Europe?
There is a range of views in Europe about what should happen next. Hungary’s Prime Minster Victor Orban, a close Trump ally, is among European leaders seen to have undermined support for Kyiv. While the new British government is largely supportive of Ukraine, the two other big players – France and Germany – are undergoing some political uncertainty, with France’s government going through a somewhat dysfunctional period.
Germany will have elections in February, with opposition leader Friedrich Merz favourite to head the new government. Merz is a strong supporter of Kyiv, and proposes a coalition of likeminded European countries to back Ukraine, possibly as a counterweight to fears that Trump will push a deal surrendering too much to Putin.
Will Negotiations Begin in 2025, and What Might a Deal Look Like?
It looks like a serious attempt to strike a truce leading to negotiations will happen in the coming months, and there’s a palpable sense from the eastern front of the country entering into an end game phase.
It’s hard to anticipate details, but the most talked about scenario is one where Ukraine accepts – at least in the immediate term – the current front lines, meaning Russia gets to control the territory is has taken by force. In return Ukraine is awarded some sort of security guarantee like eventually joining NATO.
Zelenskyy has proposed foreign troops being deployed in Ukraine temporarily to guarantee a ceasefire, an idea supported by French President Emmanuel Macron.
Accepting any deal that does not return its pre-2014 borders will be hard for Ukraine, and will undoubtedly be a reward for Russian aggression. It would also mean up to 3.5 million Ukrainians continuing to live under Russian occupation, and there is deep skepticism that Putin would honor long term any peace deal agreed in 2025.
But a majority of Ukrainians appear to be prepared to reluctantly accept this outcome. New polling by Kyiv International Institute of Sociology reportedly suggests that Ukrainians would agree to a combination of economic reconstruction, and EU and NATO membership, in exchange for accepting the current territorial lines. In the past six months, the proportion saying yes to this hypothetical deal has jumped from 47% to 64%.
